edbet官方手机版app软件下载/早上叫 Pennsylvania 7th Congressional 区: 2022 Midterm Election Survey
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional 区 between October 12 and 14, 2022.
PDF - edbet官方手机版app软件下载/早上叫 Pennsylvania 7th Congressional 区: 2022 Midterm Election Survey
主要结论:
- As the 2022 midterm elections approach, voters in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional 区 are evenly divided in their preference for who should represent the district in Congress. The results of the latest edbet官方手机版app软件下载/早上叫 survey find Congresswoman Susan 野生 (D) locked in a statistical dead heat (47%-46%) with challenger Lisa Scheller (R).
- The survey findings indicate a significant gender divide in the 7th 区, with men preferring Scheller by a 55%-37% margin, while among women 野生 leads by a margin of 58%-37%.
- 和性别一样, there is a large gap in candidate preferences between those with and without a college degree. Among voters with a bachelor’s degree, 怀尔德以54%对38%领先, while among voters without a degree Scheller leads 54%-41%.
- Inflation and abortion stand out as the most important issues to 7th 区 voters in terms of their 2022 election decision, with 34% of voters identifying inflation as the top issue and 28% selecting abortion.
- 在7th 区 voters who identified inflation as their top issue in the 2022 midterms, Scheller holds a commanding 76%-18% lead over 野生. 然而, among voters noting abortion as their top issue, 野生 maintained a lopsided 87%-11% lead over Scheller.
Methodological Statement
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 404 likely voters in the 7th Congressional 区 in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between October 12 and 14, 2022. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (118) and cell phones (286). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, 年龄, 聚会，派对, 比赛, educational attainment and the 2020 election results to reflect voter population parameters in the district. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters' files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including individuals who voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections, or who had voted in either the 2022 primary elections or 2021 general election, or if they were a new registrant since the 2020 Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100 percent. Data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software pack年龄 Version 29.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. 克里斯托弗·P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO), in conjunction with the staff of the 早上叫. The survey was funded exclusively by the 早上叫 以及MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick在 cborick@search.benchmark-auto.com.
调查工具
Q1:谢谢. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (列表)
- 民主党人…………………………………44%
- 共和党人………………………………. 44%
- 独立的……………………………… 10%
- Other Party………………………………. 2%
- Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania ….(结束调查)
- 不确定 (Volunteered) …………………...(结束调查)
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the midterm elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election?
- Definitely Going to Vote……………………..85%
- Very Likely to Vote…………………………16%
- Not Too Likely to Vote……………………… (结束调查)
- Definitely not Voting ……………………….. (结束调查)
- 不确定 (Volunteered)………..........................(结束调查)
Q3: Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections in November, would you say that you are very interested, somewhat interested or not interested at all in the 2022 elections?
- Very Interested…………………..…82%
- Somewhat Interested…………….16%
- Not Interested at All………………. 1%
Q4: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he or she is doing their job.
First, President Joe Biden?
- Approve………………………………….45%
- Disapprove ………………………………54%
- No opinion (Volunteered)………….2%
Q5: Next, Congresswoman Susan 野生?
- Approve…………………………………. 42%
- Disapprove ………………………………41%
- No opinion (Volunteered)………..17%
QUESTIONS 6-7 WERE ROTATED
Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of them is favorable or unfavorable.
苏珊·怀尔德
- Favorable……………………………………43%
- Unfavorable…………………………………41%
- Neutral/不确定…………………………… 13%
- Haven't heard of Her………………………..3%
问题7:Lisa Scheller
- Favorable……………………………………33%
- Unfavorable…………………………………43%
- Neutral/不确定…………………………19%
- Haven't heard of Her……………………….6%
我想现在, if the 2022 Pennsylvania governor’s election was being held today and the 比赛 was between 共和党人 Doug Mastriano and 民主党人 Josh Shapiro, who would you vote for? (选择旋转)
- Doug Mastriano (GO TO Q10)………………..36%
- Josh Shapiro (GO TO Q10)……………………52%
- 无论是/其他 (Volunteered) (GO TO Q10)…5%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)………………………… 7%
Q9: Are you leaning more toward voting for Doug Mastriano or Josh Shapiro? (Asked only of those who answered “不确定” in Q8: N =30)
- Doug Mastriano……………………………18%
- Josh Shapiro………………………………. 20%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)………………62%
GOVERNORS RACE WITH LEANERS
- MASTRIANO .................. 37%
- 夏皮罗 ....................... 53%
- 无论是/其它…….. 5%
- 不确定 ...................... 5%
Q10:现在, if the 2022 United States Senate election was being held today and the 比赛 was between 民主党人 约翰Fetterman and 共和党人 Mehmet Oz, who would you vote for? (选择旋转)
- 约翰Fetterman (GO TO Q12)…………………..50%
- Mehmet Oz (GO TO Q12) …………………….. 42%
- 无论是/其他 (Volunteered) (GO TO Q12)…5%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)………………………….. 4%
Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for 约翰Fetterman or Mehmet Oz? (Asked only of those who answered “不确定” in Q 10: N = 14)
- 约翰Fetterman. ………………………………….9%
- Mehmet Oz ……………………………………… 32%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)…………………………59%
SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS
- FETTERMAN…………………50%
- OZ………………………………43%
- 无论是/其他 ............... 4%
- 不确定 ......................... 2%
Q12: Now, if the election in the 7th Congressional 区 was being held today and the 比赛 was between 民主党人 Susan 野生 and 共和党人 Lisa Scheller, who would you vote for? (选择旋转)
- Susan 野生…………………………………. 47%
- Lisa Scheller………………………………. 45%
- 无论是/其他 …………………………….. 4%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)……………………4%
Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for Susan 野生 or Lisa Scheller? (选择旋转) (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID “NOT SURE” IN Q12: N = 16)
- Susan 野生………………………………….. 0%
- Lisa Scheller………………………… ……. 31%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)…………………69%
7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT WITH LEANERS
- 野生 ............................... 47%
- SCHELLER ........................46%
- 无论是/其他 ................4%
- 不确定 ...........................4%
Q14: Which of the following issues do you consider to be the most important in terms of your decision in the 2022 midterm elections? (列表) (ROTATE OPTIONS)
- 通货膨胀 .........................34%
- 堕胎 ........................ 28%
- 健康 Care………………… 7%
- Immigration…………………7%
- 工作 ............................. 6%
- 犯罪 ............................ 5%
- 教育 ....................... 3%
- The Environment…………..3%
- Other (Volunteered)…………5%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)……..2%
Q15: Do you think abortion should be:
- Legal in all cases…………34%
- Legal in most cases………31%
- Illegal in most cases…….21%
- Illegal in all cases…………5%
- 不确定(VOL).............. 8%
Q16: Which of these best describes your actions in the 2020 presidential election? Did you vote for (列表):
- Joe Biden……………………………………………………….48%
- Donald Trump………………………………………………….44%
- a candidate other than Biden or Trump…………………3%
- or did you not vote in the 2020 presidential election……5%
- 不确定(VOL)............……………………………………..1%
Q17: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (列表)?
- White/Caucasian…………………………..83%
- African-American………………………… 3%
- Hispanic…………………………………… 3%
- Latino……………………………………... 2%
- Asian………………………………………. 1%
- Native American…………………………..<1%
- Mixed 比赛………………………………….5%
- or other…………………………………….. 3%
Q18: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (列表)?
- Catholic……………………………………… 24%
- Protestant……………………………………. 33%
- Jewish……………………………………….. 4%
- Muslim……………………………………….<1%
- Hindu…………………………………………<1%
- Other Religion (Including agnostic)…….28%
- or Atheist…………………………………….. 6%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)……………………… 5%
Q19: What is your highest level of education? (列表)
- Less than High School……………………….. 2%
- High School Graduate……………………….. 21%
- Some College or Technical School……….28%
- College graduate (4 yr only)…………………31%
- Graduate or professional degree…………..18%
Q20: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? (读列表)?
- Under $20,000……………………………….. 6%
- $20,000-$40,000……………………………...14%
- $40,000-$60,000……………………………...15%
- $60,000-$80,000……………………………...15%
- $80,000-$100,000…………………………….10%
- Over $100,000……………………………….. 29%
- 不确定 (Volunteered)……………………….12%
Q21: Which of the following categories does your current 年龄 fall in? (读列表)?
- 18-34………………………………………….16%
- 35-50………………………………………….25%
- 51-64………………………………………….29%
- 65- and over…………………………………..31%
Q22: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (列表)
- 男性…………………………………………………………49%
- 女……………………………………………………….51%
- Transgender 男性…………………………………………… 0%
- Transgender 女…………………………………………<1%
- Or you do not identify as male, female or transgender……<1%
选择交叉表
7th Congressional 区
|
|
野生 |
Scheller |
无论是/其他 |
不确定 |
|
整体 |
47% |
46% |
4% |
4% |
|
民主党人 |
92% |
5% |
2% |
2% |
|
共和党人 |
8% |
86% |
3% |
3% |
|
独立的 |
28% |
48% |
20% |
5% |
|
没有大学学位 |
41% |
54% |
3% |
3% |
|
大学学位 |
54% |
38% |
5% |
3% |
|
男性 |
37% |
55% |
5 % |
4% |
|
女 |
58% |
37% |
3% |
3% |
|
18-34 |
48% |
43% |
8% |
2% |
|
35-50 |
52% |
34% |
9% |
5% |
|
51-64 |
48% |
50% |
<1% |
3% |
|
65岁及以上 |
42% |
55% |
2% |
2% |
|
拜登2020年选民 |
90% |
5% |
4% |
2% |
|
特朗普选民2020 |
1% |
93% |
2% |
4% |
|
肯定投票 |
49% |
44% |
4% |
3% |
|
Very Likely to Vote |
37% |
55% |
7% |
2% |
|
通货膨胀是首要问题 |
18% |
76% |
2% |
4% |
|
堕胎问题 |
87% |
11% |
3% |
0% |